Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 11.869530 13.351332 15.027020 17.079306 19.548596 22.454555 26.179585
2025-03-30 9.602807 11.372492 13.530153 16.406195 20.221870 25.237141 32.557465
2025-04-06 8.203816 10.024167 12.349371 15.622198 20.259054 26.849195 37.456352
2025-04-13 7.257684 9.078601 11.488347 15.027572 20.314511 28.337021 42.410767
2025-04-20 7.198901 9.268174 12.129835 16.567452 23.675959 35.478021 58.944269
2025-04-27 6.851866 9.007791 12.087388 17.062854 25.479025 40.513629 73.832129
2025-05-04 6.286524 8.376002 11.423782 16.482580 25.359730 42.047286 82.084595
2025-05-11 6.041274 8.183768 11.391513 16.901272 27.041099 47.446892 102.186668
2025-05-18 5.687270 7.796526 11.014749 16.683530 27.496135 50.437513 117.865585
2025-05-25 5.380071 7.455502 10.677207 16.485870 27.944955 53.533691 136.048602
2025-06-01 5.133799 7.189774 10.435882 16.425920 28.653349 57.451079 160.240391
2025-06-08 4.845336 6.837980 10.023251 16.002396 28.523582 59.242035 178.220580
2025-06-15 4.635278 6.609464 9.818569 15.985229 29.366744 64.166027 216.593009
2025-06-22 4.344223 6.233205 9.335191 15.382196 28.797629 65.005546 237.282279
2025-06-29 4.061039 5.853826 8.820139 14.664994 27.850200 64.465553 250.563167
2025-07-06 3.828662 5.546073 8.410681 14.120596 27.236817 64.822635 270.818494
2025-07-13 3.906618 5.757213 8.932892 15.528952 31.715991 83.967850 476.868447
2025-07-20 3.839640 5.717460 8.995917 15.981014 33.858185 96.350063 696.440498
2025-07-27 3.649086 5.454611 8.627141 15.451456 33.198977 97.205561 779.845061
2025-08-03 3.586651 5.410926 8.666355 15.833621 35.223652 110.919236 1194.659529
2025-08-10 3.458184 5.244407 8.460084 15.634919 35.497712 116.831118 1540.913136
2025-08-17 3.340259 5.091031 8.269717 15.454460 35.799766 123.210350 2040.584831
2025-08-24 3.243864 4.971606 8.138120 15.399711 36.495858 132.338527 2964.549517